According to experts, considering the instability of the international geopolitical situation and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, 5 trends will be protagonists in the wine market in the future. Let’s analyze them one by one.

1. Increase in domestic consumption

The increase in domestic wine consumption is a trend that emerged strongly in the pandemic period, due to the restrictions and limitations imposed to combat Covid-19. According to the IWSR researchers, this trend will characterize the wine sector in the near future.

Behind this choice of consumption there are no longer fears related to the pandemic, but economic reasons, due to inflation and economic recession linked to the instability of the international geopolitical scenario. Many consumers have reduced and will reduce "on-premise consumption" in favor of "home-premise" consumption.

2. Continued (but slight) growth in e-commerce

Another trend that emerged during the pandemic period is related to the growth of wine e-commerce. In that period, because of the restrictions for Covid-19, there was a real "boom" of home wine sales platforms and online wine sales sites. In general, according to the IWSR study, "alcohol ecommerce value grew by over 40% in 2020 alone". Many wine lovers have started to buy wine online, discovering new purchase possibilities.

It was thought that, in the following years, with the progressive disappearance of the restrictions from Covid-19, consumers returned to buy massively from traditional sales channels. All this happened only partially. Although in a moderate way and not reaching the peaks of the pandemic phase, wine e-commerce continues to show growth rates, in terms of sales and value.

The possible difficulties for the online wine sector depend on the increasing competition from other alcoholic beverages, which have become important in this sales channel. The IWSR researchers predict that the sales of wine in e-commerce will be less dominant than other alcoholic beverages, as was the case until a few years ago.

3. Moderation: drink less

One of the main trends of the global wine market in the future, if we consider as a whole both traditional and online distribution channels, is a general decline in sales and consumption of wine due to a greater predisposition to moderation in the consumer of this historical period.

This trend is closely linked to the economic recession and mainly affects the age groups of "young adults (18-24 years)" and those who do not have a high income or a steady and regular salary.

4. Premiumisation: drink less but better

Together with the reduction in consumption among younger people and among those with less economic stability, a trend towards "premiumization" is expected for consumers with higher incomes. This trend had also characterized the pandemic period, when, to balance the lack of on-premise experience, many consumers, not yet affected by inflation and rising prices, allowed themselves products belonging to the "premium" sector.

Despite the current economic situation, "premiumization" seems to be a trend that will characterize the future, especially among consumers with higher incomes. Specifically, although for this type of consumers the economic recession is less impacting, it is expected the affirmation of the philosophy of "drinking less, but better", in short, a kind of "premiumized moderation" ...

5. Sparkling wines growing beyond traditional consumption opportunities

The type of wine that is showing the highest growth rates is that of sparkling wines, thanks to the great international appellations, such as Prosecco, especially in the "premium" category. As IWSR experts write: "Sparkling wine also came out of the pandemic stronger than it went in". The success of sparkling wines is linked to the impossibility of organizing and participating in parties, celebrations and special occasions during the pandemic. This situation has led many enthusiasts to experience their consumption on other occasions, domestic and less formal. In this way, the sparkling wine segment has conquered spaces that, previously, did not seem to belong to it, within non-traditional consumption occasions. Its sales have increased, a positive trend that will be confirmed in the future ...

Do you find yourself in this scenario? What do you think will happen to the wine market in the future?